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3 Weeks til Draft Day!

Updated: Apr 8, 2023

FEE Printable Mock Draft Sheet

Draft Day is one of my favorite days of the year.

I love all the preparation. I love that the basis of conversation is college football. I love that each team provides a totally different opportunity for each player.

I am a QB junkie. I played QB at Taylor University from 2010-2014 and absolutely loved it. Although I wasn't good enough to move on to the NFL, my passion for the game and the position didn't end with my career. I have coached. Loved it, but it didn't fit the life I was trying to live (not right now anyway).

Brothers In Cards has grown into my full-time job because of that passion for football. I have chosen to stay connected to the game through football cards. I do a lot of research on who I choose to invest in (and who I choose NOT to invest in). I have had more successes than failures in these ventures.

The bulk of my research comes in the direction of the QB's last season in college. I have certain stats that I look at. I have various opinions on mechanics and skills that translate to the NFL as well as skills that don't translate. I definitely don't consider myself an expert, but I have noticed, every year that I have taken this deep dive into the QB world (since 2018), that NFL Scouts almost always pay attention to more than the talking heads do (shocker). I will explain more moving forward.

Regardless of what I think, there will be 31 selections in the 1st round of the NFL Draft on Thursday, April 27th. More than likely, 5 QBs will be selected. Where they go will effect their future as well as the value of their cards.

If I can detect who I believe to be busts, it will save me from making bad card investments. If I can detect underrated QBs that will be successful, that can lead to significant wins on those investments.

Draft Day is coming, and I will be ready. Welcome to my brain.

For quarterbacks, there are really only 4 realities that lie ahead (at least in the short term). Guys like Tom Brady and Brock Purdy are anomalies who got an opportunities due to injuries. At least 22 NFL QB1s in the 2022 season were drafted in the 1st round.

There are 18 Quarterbacks that I could compare numbers with in regards to this year's draft. That does not include one of the greatest D2 QBs to ever play, Tyson Bagent - he will be featured in a future article.

The stats that matter most to me are the following:

  1. Strength of Schedule

  2. Passing Attempts

  3. Completion Percentage

  4. Sacks per Passing Attempt

  5. TD/INT Ratio

  6. ESPN Passer Rating

I have a formula that weighs these stats differently and spits out a number that I have found to make a lot of sense over the years. To those that are intrigued, Joe Burrow scored higher than anyone else has ever scored on this list since 2018. Malik Willis, who some talking heads projected to be in the Top 10 picks last year, scored very low. I wrote an article about this last year, and people didn't like it. However, I believe these stats to be stats that NFL scouts care about as well.

In my opinion, the following QBs will fit that Camp Arm category and will likely not be drafted:

-Adrien Martinez

-Tanner Morgan

-Sean Clifford

-Malik Cunningham

-Aidan O'Connell

-Tanner McKee

I actually like Aidan O'Connell from Purdue and he may get snagged late. Tanner McKee has been talked about by many sources mainly because he physically looks the part and he is smart (Stanford), but the reality is that he was 17th out of 18 QBs in Completion Percentage, sacks, and TD/INT while posting the worst ESPN Passer Rating out of all of them.

There are a couple guys I will talk about in my next article that may not get drafted, but they absolutely deserve some consideration and admiration.

You can screenshot this image or download a printable version here:

8.5 x 11 in copy 7
Download PDF • 870KB

I have always looked at that first round as CRUCIAL for each franchise. You usually only get 7 or so new players in the draft, and they will all come in behind your first round pick - recognizing them as the leader of the rookie class. In my opinion, your first round pick needs to be someone who can make a significant impact as a rookie.

Guessing who goes where in the NFL Draft is about as difficult as choosing winners in the NCAA Basketball brackets - but I love doing both each year! This year, I thought it would be fun to help you guys create your own Mock Drafts.


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