Top 5 NFL QBs of...2027
The end is near for some greats. The future is bright for others.
Why do I care about who will be good 5 years from now?
I own a sports cards business. We think about this all the time. 5 years ago, Patrick Mahomes was a rookie that nobody cared about. We literally sold one of his Select RPAs for $100. That card is now worth 10X what we sold it for.
The reason 2027 really sticks out to me is because I believe the "old guard" of NFL quarterbacks will be completely gone by then. Tom Brady
Aaron Rodgers
Matt Ryan
Matthew Stafford
Kirk Cousins
Russell Wilson
Ryan Tannehill
Jimmy Garoppolo
Derek Carr
Marcus Mariota
Jameis Winston
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz
Dak Prescott
How many of those guys will still be the starting quarterback for their franchise in 2027? The answer could quite possibly be none. That list contains 14 starters out of the 32 slots in the NFL. Within the next 5 years, will any newcomers be able to escalate to Top 5 QB talents? I don't see it coming from anyone in the 2022 NFL Draft. I guess we have seen it happen in 4 years before, but it's no easy task. No projected 2023 NFL Draft Picks have me thinking quick rise to Top 5 status.
I believe that we will roll into the 2027 season talking about guys that are playing right now.
The 14 guys I mentioned above were all drafted before 2017. The rest of the starting QBs in the NFL are from these classes:
2017: 3
2018: 3
2019: 3
2020: 4
2021: 5
Making the Top 5 list will require a resume. We have already seen a few Super Bowls featuring these younger guys, and I am confident we will see more in the near future. By the time we get to 2027, some of these guys are going to have a flat out impressive history in the NFL.
I am going to rank my projected 2027 QB list 1-5 with no consideration to future age. For example, Tom Brady might not be the best active QB in 2022 but he is #1 in my book because of what he has done in his career. Until he officially (officially) retires, he will be the best QB in the game. 7 rings fam.
1. Josh Allen
As we stroll into the 2022 season, Josh Allen may be the hungriest QB in the league. I'm not sure anyone really believes the Bills would have lost had they won that coin toss. Allen totaled 51 touchdowns last season when you combine passing and rushing scores. Only Super Bowl Champion Matthew Stafford had more (52) and he had two more games. The Bills have not had a consistent run game other than Josh Allen. Their defense has been in the upper half of the league but has been unable to guide them deep into the playoffs.
Josh Allen has proven that he can do it all without sustaining injury. He utilizes every single weapon Buffalo puts on the field. 10 different Bills caught touchdowns last year. Take any of his weapons away and he will be fine. I am sure very few of his current weapons will be there in 2027, but I am confident he will make it work with what the Bills send out there.
The AFC will be a gauntlet every year but Josh Allen and the Bills will be near the top of the food chain in each of the coming years. He is a fierce competitor that has his city and organization behind him 100%. Great things to come - I have no doubt.
2. Patrick Mahomes
The first thing that comes to mind when I think about Patrick Mahomes is arm talent. He has made throws that I just don't understand. Every defense plans to make the QB as uncomfortable as possible. Mahomes thrives in uncomfortable. There is no throwing angle that he won't attempt. He doesn't even have to be looking. In 2027, Mahomes will be on year 10. Mobility seems to be scarce when guys get to the decade mark. I don't think it will matter for Mahomes. He runs like a QB - taking slices of green while protecting himself along the way. He isn't going to forget how to use his arm talent and his gunslinger mindset isn't going to change. I foresee the 2027 Patrick Mahomes is going to be nearly the exact same force NFL defenses have faced in the last 4 seasons. Remember, the Chiefs have made it to the AFC Championship all 4 of those seasons.
Andy Reid has placed a lot of responsibility on Patrick Mahomes. How much can he take? Well, Mahomes has not played in a single playoff game with a Top 10 defense. They just traded away his #1 target - one of the fastest and most productive receivers in the league. Hill had 111 receptions last year. The rest of the receivers depth chart combined for 133. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdez-Scantling are no slouches, but I don't know if anyone expects them to replace the production of Tyreek.
In all honesty, I don't think it will matter. In the 2019 regular season (you know, when the Chiefs won their Super Bowl), Sammy Watkins had more receptions than Tyreek Hill. Patrick Mahomes throws to places not people. Tyreek Hill could get to more places and could run away from defenders after he got the ball, but there are still going to be plenty of open spots in those zones. Kelce, JuJu, and MVS will be able to find them just fine. There will be more receivers. There will only be one Patrick Mahomes.
3. Joe Burrow
In 2019, the Bengals went 2-14. In 2020, they drafted Joe Burrow. In 2021, they went to the Super Bowl. It was a phenomenal idea for the Bengals to draft Burrow's guy, Ja'Marr Chase, who won Rookie of the Year after the duo punched 1,455 yards through the air. Chase is going to be available with the 5th year option in 2027. Cincinnati has spent $84,000,000 on new linemen this offseason. They are clearly all-in on their #1 overall pick who almost got them a ring in year two.
Joe Burrow is a special kind of competitor. He doesn't care about how good anyone else is. His aspirations are championships. He didn't care about Alabama and Georgia as he led LSU to a National Championship. He went from being an Ohio State washout to a Heisman Trophy winner. What he has done in Cincinnati in his first two years is remarkable. Most of the offense that started in this year's Super Bowl was on that same 2-14 team in 2019. If Burrow can elevate that squad that fast, I imagine he is going to have no problem keeping the Bengals going at a high level year in and year out.
4. Justin Herbert
The Chargers had Philip Rivers for almost 15 years. While he may not be Canton bound, he left some big shoes to fill. Justin Herbert was up for it. The 2020 Rookie of the Year broke the single season record for passing yards for a rookie in only 15 games. Since 2009, the Chargers have only made it to the playoffs twice. In year 2, Herbert had his squad as close as you could possibly get without getting in.
The AFC West may be the toughest division in football right now. LA has shown no signs of backing down. Their offensive weapons remain the same electric squad as last year. The Chargers were 5th in scoring last year, but 29th in points given up. They made great efforts to fix that, adding JC Jackson, Khalil Mack, Sebastian Joseph, Uchenna Nwosu, Austin Johnson, and Justin Jones. They also get star safety Derwin James back from injury. I believe the Chargers have the best defense in the NFL. Will it be enough to stop Mahomes, Wilson, and Carr/Adams? Only time will tell.
Every time I think about Justin Herbert, I remember what I was hearing at the combine - we asked different players who the coolest person they've met was. Multiple guys said Justin Herbert. He has great character, great talent, and great leadership. He was drafted into an already gifted offense, but I imagine he will be able to bridge the gap over time - making each receiver he gets better and
HOT TAKE COMING!!!
5. Zach Wilson
Before you start making fun of me, let's look at what the Jets have done for Mr. Wilson in the last couple months. They signed Pro Bowl Guard Laken Tomlinson. They added stud Tight End CJ Uzomah. Many (if not most) NFL analysts proclaim the Jets to be the winners of the 2022 NFL Draft, adding some defensive standouts and shiny new offensive weapons Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. Elijah Moore seemed to build a great report with his fellow rookie QB last season and Michael Carter seems to have what it takes. The Jets offense has the weapons.
I believe the greatest of these weapons is Zach Wilson. I did a YouTube series on QB draft prospects leading up to the 2021 NFL Draft. I had Zach Wilson ranked 3rd in the class, but I will tell anyone that he was my favorite QB to watch in college.
If we ever see the Zach Wilson we saw at BYU, I have no doubt he will be ranking in the Top 5 eventually. He has the mobility of Josh Allen. He has the arm talent of Patrick Mahomes. The potential is there and his ceiling is extremely high. The Jets seem to be doing all the right things to reach that ceiling.
As far as competition goes, the AFC is obviously loaded right now and for years to come. The AFC East is going to be ran by Josh Allen and the Bills - I'm not sure there is anything Zach Wilson is going to be able to do to stop that.
